Okay, the people that say that this is still "possible". You're "technically right", but I don't think you realize JUST how statistically unlikely this situation is. It's so highly improbably that it might as well be impossible. I know some other people have attempted to calculate the statistical odds, but I think mine is the most accurate.
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ THE RARE NAME ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
"Rares names are randomized and it's impossible to deduce the stats of your rare item from the name alone."
http://d3db.com
In D2 there were 43 possibilities for the beginning word, and around 10 possibilities for the end word (varied based on item type) for rares. If we were to assume Diablo 3 has a similar range of possible rare names:
Chance of having the same name per item type = ~1/430.
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ HAVING 6 AFFIXES ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Chance that the rare Demi Lich dropped with 6-affixes - ~1/10.
I'm not sure why the item has 4 prefixes and 2 suffixes. It's either because rare items work differently than in D2 and are allowed different combination of prefixes and suffixes instead of 3 and 3, rare prefixes/suffixes don't always correspond to magic ones, there's some exceptions made with stats for affixes, or the database mislabeled one or more affixes as being prefixes when they were really not (less likely as they're data rips, and I double checked the affixes from other sources).
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You can't have the same affix type twice, so each rolled affix will decrease the total pool of affixes with each subsequent roll. Since order doesn't matter in the rolls, there's a lot of ways the affixes could have been rolled and end up with the same overall item, and I'm not willing to calculate all that and average the possibilities. So what I'm going to do is average the total loss of affixes from the pool on each roll, and just use that as a base figure.
Prefixes #1-4: (2 + 9 + 10 + 7)/4 = 7
Suffixes #1-2: ((16+11)/2 + 15)/2 = 14.25
Odds of rolling a certain affix were calculated based off this database:
http://diablonut.incgamers.com/affix...ture-and-stats
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ THE BASE DAMAGE ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
+95-387 Damage
Damge on Demi Lich ranges from +(28-110)–(29-405)
Chance of min damage on item being 95 = 1/83.
Chance of max damage on item being 387 = 1/310.
Total chance: 1/25730
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ AFFIX #1 ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
+153 Intelligence
(Lowest Int that affixes Int 10-16 can be while staying in range of 153 is 83, highest it can be is 101)
Int 10 = 82-91 Int
Int 11 = 92-101 Int
Int 14 Secondary = 78-83 Int
Int 15 Secondary = 84-89 Int
Int 16 Secondary = 90-100 Int
IntVit I = 12-55 Int
IntVit II = 15-70 Int
Rolling the prefix = 5/165 (1st)
Rolling 83-101 = (1/6 + 9/10 + 1/1 + 1/1 + 1/1)/5 = 61/75
Rolling matching counterpart to above from IntVit I/II to total 153 int = (1/44 + 1/56)/2 = 1/50
Total chance = 61/123750
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ AFFIX #2 ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
+30 Vitality
IntVit I = 12-55 Vit
IntVit II = 15-70 Vit
Rolling the suffix = 2/327 (1st)
Rolling 30 = (1/44 + 1/56)/2 = 1/50
Total chance = 1/8175
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ AFFIX #3 ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Melee attackers take 596 damage per hit
Thorns 12 - 552-811 damage per hit
Rolling the prefix = 1/150.75 (2nd)
Rolling 596 = 1/260
Total chance = 1/39195
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ AFFIX #4 ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Critical hit chance increased by 8.0%
CriticalChance VIII - 8.0 or 8.5%
Rolling the suffix = 1/320 (2nd)
Rolling 8.0% = 1/2
Total chance = 1/640
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ AFFIX #5 ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Critical hits grant 9 arcane power
ArcanePowerOnCrit 5 - 9-10 Arcane Power
Rolling the suffix = 1/313 (3rd)
Rolling 9 = 1/2
Total chance = 1/626
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ AFFIX #6 ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Socketed
Sockets I
Sockets II
Sockets IV
Sockets VI
Sockets VIII
Sockets X
Sockets XII
Rolling the suffix = 7/306 (4th)
Rolling 1 socket = 1/1
Total chance = 7/306
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ CALCULATIONS ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Number of combinations affixes can be picked out = 2! * 4! = 48
That multiplied by the chances above:
48 * 1/430 * 1/10 * 1/25730 * 61/123750 * 1/8175 * 1/39195 * 1/640 * 1/626 * 7/306 =
427/11,204,858,483,792,376,950,000,000,000
or
2.090*10^-31
or
1 out of 4,784,474,572,579,344,957,650,000,000,000
That's one out of four quadrillion TIMES quadrillion.
Okay, now that was just the chance of ONE of these rares being an exact duplicate of Arcanum Mind.
But there's 6 total that we know of... so the real chance of this being "possible" is:
3.989*10^-154
"Impossible" is the word that most vividly comes to mind. It's like winning the Mega Millions Lotto 10^140 times.
It's like snapping your fingers and having the person in front of you drop dead, just by chance, and repeating that miracle of coincidence 23 times... IN A ROW.
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Сообщение от Screamo
